Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spokane Velocity vs Northern Colorado — USL League One 2019

Spokane Velocity
Spokane Velocity
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Northern Colorado
Northern Colorado
3/24/2024USL League OneUSL League One · Round 2One Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Spokane Velocity39%
×Draw27%
Northern Colorado34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spokane Velocity
1.32
Northern Colorado
1.20

Spokane Velocity creates 10% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 43 away

creates per match

Spokane Velocity
1.49
Northern Colorado
1.26

allows per match

Spokane Velocity
1.14
Northern Colorado
1.16

finishing

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par
Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spokane Velocity ↓

Northern Colorado →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spokane Velocity or draw
66%
Spokane Velocity or Northern Colorado
73%
Draw or Northern Colorado
61%

Winning margin

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+
18%
Northern Colorado wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals
73%
Spokane Velocity 2+ goals
38%
Spokane Velocity 3+ goals
15%
Northern Colorado 1+ goals
70%
Northern Colorado 2+ goals
34%
Northern Colorado 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)
54%
Northern Colorado (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spokane Velocity at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Northern Colorado away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.16 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spokane Velocity attack 1.49 + Northern Colorado defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.32

Northern Colorado attack 1.26 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spokane Velocity scores more
39%
level
27%
Northern Colorado scores more
34%

Spokane Velocity at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spokane Velocity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Spokane Velocity 1–0 Northern Colorado

Spokane Velocity beat Northern Colorado 1-0 in USL League One on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at One Spokane Stadium in Spokane, Washington.