Northern Colorado 0–3 Spokane Velocity

Northern Colorado

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Spokane Velocity

11/3/2024

USL League One · Championship - Quarter-finals4Rivers Equipment Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Northern Colorado53%

×Draw24%

Spokane Velocity23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Northern ColoradoExpected goals in this matchSpokane Velocity

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.08

Northern Colorado

1.75

Spokane Velocity

1.08

Northern Colorado creates 62% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 34 away

1.95

creates per match

1.03

1.14

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Northern Colorado

1.95

Spokane Velocity

1.03

allows per match

Northern Colorado

1.14

Spokane Velocity

1.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Northern Colorado+0.00on par

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Northern Colorado ↓

Spokane Velocity →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Northern Colorado or draw

77%

Northern Colorado or Spokane Velocity

76%

Draw or Spokane Velocity

47%

Winning margin

Northern Colorado wins by 2+

29%

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Northern Colorado 1+ goals

83%

Northern Colorado 2+ goals

52%

Northern Colorado 3+ goals

25%

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals

66%

Spokane Velocity 2+ goals

29%

Spokane Velocity 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Northern Colorado (draw refunded)

69%

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Northern Colorado at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.14 · 44 matches

Spokane Velocity away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Northern Colorado attack 1.95 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Spokane Velocity attack 1.03 + Northern Colorado defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Northern Colorado scores more

53%

level

24%

Spokane Velocity scores more

23%

Northern Colorado at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Northern Colorado will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff