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Spokane Velocity vs Greenville Triumph — USL League One 2026

Spokane Velocity
Spokane Velocity
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Greenville Triumph
Greenville Triumph
10/13/2024USL League OneUSL League One · Round 13One Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Spokane Velocity41%
×Draw26%
Greenville Triumph32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spokane Velocity
1.40
Greenville Triumph
1.21

Spokane Velocity creates 16% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 104 away

creates per match

Spokane Velocity
1.49
Greenville Triumph
1.29

allows per match

Spokane Velocity
1.14
Greenville Triumph
1.31

finishing

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par
Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spokane Velocity ↓

Greenville Triumph →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Spokane Velocity or draw
68%
Spokane Velocity or Greenville Triumph
74%
Draw or Greenville Triumph
59%

Winning margin

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+
19%
Greenville Triumph wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals
75%
Spokane Velocity 2+ goals
41%
Spokane Velocity 3+ goals
17%
Greenville Triumph 1+ goals
70%
Greenville Triumph 2+ goals
34%
Greenville Triumph 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)
56%
Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spokane Velocity at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.14 · 35 matches

Greenville Triumph away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spokane Velocity attack 1.49 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.40

Greenville Triumph attack 1.29 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spokane Velocity scores more
41%
level
26%
Greenville Triumph scores more
32%

Spokane Velocity at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spokane Velocity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Spokane Velocity vs Greenville Triumph

Greenville Triumph beat Spokane Velocity 3-2 in USL League One on October 13, 2024.

The match was played at One Spokane Stadium in Spokane, Washington.