Spokane Velocity 0–0 Greenville Triumph

Spokane Velocity

Pens

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Greenville Triumph

5/26/2024

USL League One Cup · Group Stage - 2One Spokane Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Spokane Velocity43%

×Draw25%

Greenville Triumph31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spokane VelocityExpected goals in this matchGreenville Triumph

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.23

Spokane Velocity

1.50

Greenville Triumph

1.23

Spokane Velocity creates 22% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 8 away

1.50

creates per match

1.13

1.33

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Spokane Velocity

1.50

Greenville Triumph

1.13

allows per match

Spokane Velocity

1.33

Greenville Triumph

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spokane Velocity+0.00on par

Greenville Triumph+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spokane Velocity ↓

Greenville Triumph →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Spokane Velocity or draw

69%

Spokane Velocity or Greenville Triumph

75%

Draw or Greenville Triumph

57%

Winning margin

Spokane Velocity wins by 2+

21%

Greenville Triumph wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spokane Velocity 1+ goals

78%

Spokane Velocity 2+ goals

44%

Spokane Velocity 3+ goals

19%

Greenville Triumph 1+ goals

71%

Greenville Triumph 2+ goals

35%

Greenville Triumph 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)

58%

Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spokane Velocity at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Greenville Triumph away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.50 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spokane Velocity attack 1.50 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Greenville Triumph attack 1.13 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spokane Velocity scores more

43%

level

25%

Greenville Triumph scores more

31%

Spokane Velocity at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spokane Velocity will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff