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Greenville Triumph vs Spokane Velocity — USL League One 2026

Greenville Triumph
Greenville Triumph
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Spokane Velocity
Spokane Velocity
3/29/2025USL League OneUSL League One · Round 2Paladin Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Greenville Triumph47%
×Draw26%
Spokane Velocity27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Greenville Triumph
1.47
Spokane Velocity
1.04

Greenville Triumph creates 41% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 34 away

creates per match

Greenville Triumph
1.37
Spokane Velocity
1.03

allows per match

Greenville Triumph
1.05
Spokane Velocity
1.56

finishing

Greenville Triumph+0.00on par
Spokane Velocity+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Greenville Triumph ↓

Spokane Velocity →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Greenville Triumph or draw
73%
Greenville Triumph or Spokane Velocity
74%
Draw or Spokane Velocity
53%

Winning margin

Greenville Triumph wins by 2+
23%
Spokane Velocity wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Greenville Triumph 1+ goals
77%
Greenville Triumph 2+ goals
43%
Greenville Triumph 3+ goals
18%
Spokane Velocity 1+ goals
65%
Spokane Velocity 2+ goals
28%
Spokane Velocity 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Greenville Triumph (draw refunded)
64%
Spokane Velocity (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Greenville Triumph at home — creates 1.37, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Spokane Velocity away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.56 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Greenville Triumph attack 1.37 + Spokane Velocity defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.47

Spokane Velocity attack 1.03 + Greenville Triumph defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Greenville Triumph scores more
47%
level
26%
Spokane Velocity scores more
27%

Greenville Triumph at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Greenville Triumph will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League One: Greenville Triumph 0–4 Spokane Velocity

Spokane Velocity beat Greenville Triumph 4-0 in USL League One on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Paladin Stadium.