Spezia 1–3 Pescara: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 2

Pescara

A. Galabinov 37'

G. Monachello 56', 35'

L. Mancuso 9'

10/19/2018

Serie B · Round 8Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia45%

×Draw25%

Pescara31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchPescara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.60

1.28

Spezia

1.60

Pescara

1.28

Spezia creates 25% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 10 away

1.51

creates per match

1.40

1.17

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Spezia

1.51

Pescara

1.40

allows per match

Spezia

1.17

Pescara

1.69

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

+0.10scores more than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more

Pescara+0.10scores more

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Pescara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

69%

Spezia or Pescara

75%

Draw or Pescara

55%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

23%

Pescara wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

80%

Spezia 2+ goals

47%

Spezia 3+ goals

22%

Pescara 1+ goals

72%

Pescara 2+ goals

37%

Pescara 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

59%

Pescara (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Pescara away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.69 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Pescara defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.60

Pescara attack 1.40 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Spezia scores more

45%

level

25%

Pescara scores more

31%

Spezia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

L. Mancuso↳ L. Memushaj

11'

Hugo Campagnaro

35'

G. Monachello↳ M. Marras

37'

A. Galabinov

42'

Nicolas Giani

51'

Leonardo Mancuso

56'

G. Monachello↳ M. Marras

66'

N. Pierini← E. Gyasi

68'

F. Kanoute← Pepín

69'

G. Maggiore← M. Ricci

81'

L. Crecco← L. Mancuso

84'

S. Gudjohnsen← S. Bidaoui

86'

M. Perrotta← M. Marras

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SpeziaPescara

Overview

60%Possession40%

12Total Shots9

10Corners4

14Fouls16

Shots

12Total Shots9

5On Target4

7Off Target5

Passing

60%Possession40%

Goalkeeping

1Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls16

1Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0

1Offsides3