Pescara 1–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Spezia

D. Faraoni 10'

G. Artistico 73'

5/8/2026

Serie B · Round 38Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Pescara36%

×Draw23%

Spezia41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.71

Pescara

1.59

Spezia

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 10 away

1.43

creates per match

1.61

1.80

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Pescara

1.43

Spezia

1.61

allows per match

Pescara

1.80

Spezia

1.76

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara-0.10scores less

Spezia-0.41scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

59%

Pescara or Spezia

77%

Draw or Spezia

64%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

18%

Spezia wins by 2+

21%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

80%

Pescara 2+ goals

47%

Pescara 3+ goals

21%

Spezia 1+ goals

82%

Spezia 2+ goals

51%

Spezia 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

47%

Spezia (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.80 · 12 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.76 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.43 + Spezia defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.59

Spezia attack 1.61 + Pescara defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Pescara scores more

36%

level

23%

Spezia scores more

41%

Spezia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

13

G. Acampora

Pescara · M

7.5

Match Events

10'

D. Faraoni

24'

L. Vignali← M. Valoti

33'

Luca Vignali

41'

Giacomo Olzer

46'

L. Sernicola← E. Adamo

46'

G. Artistico← G. Di Serio

53'

Leonardo SernicolaGoal cancelled

66'

A. Nagy← C. Comotto

70'

Alessandro Romano

71'

F. Caligara← G. Acampora

73'

G. Artistico↳ G. Lapadula

76'

G. Aurelio← P. Beruatto

78'

A. Oliveri← G. Letizia

79'

F. Tsadjout← L. Valzania

80'

G. Altare← D. Faraoni

81'

Ádám Nagy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraSpezia

Overview

60%Possession40%

11Total Shots7

0.87Expected Goals (xG)1.31

3Corners1

11Fouls20

Shots

11Total Shots7

6On Target1

2Off Target3

3Blocked3

6Inside Box4

5Outside Box3

Passing

60%Possession40%

468Total Passes306

369Accurate Passes206

79%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

0Saves5

-0.23Goals Prevented-0.23

Discipline

11Fouls20

1Yellow Cards3

6Offsides2

Match Recap: Pescara vs Spezia

Pescara and Spezia drew 1-1 in Serie B on May 8, 2026.

Goals: D. Faraoni (10'), G. Artistico (73').

Pescara controlled possession (60%) and registered 11 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico - Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.

Pescara vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Pescara vs Spezia