Pescara 1–2 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Pescara

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Spezia

Pepín 23'

S. Gudjohnsen 71'

P. Bartolomei 69'

10/19/2019

Serie B · Round 8Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Pescara38%

×Draw23%

Spezia39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PescaraExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.71

Pescara

1.69

Spezia

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.49

creates per match

1.71

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Pescara

1.49

Spezia

1.71

allows per match

Pescara

1.71

Spezia

1.90

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Pescara-0.11scores less

Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pescara ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Pescara or draw

61%

Pescara or Spezia

77%

Draw or Spezia

62%

Winning margin

Pescara wins by 2+

19%

Spezia wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Pescara 1+ goals

82%

Pescara 2+ goals

50%

Pescara 3+ goals

24%

Spezia 1+ goals

82%

Spezia 2+ goals

51%

Spezia 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Pescara (draw refunded)

49%

Spezia (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pescara at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.71 · 13 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pescara attack 1.49 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.69

Spezia attack 1.71 + Pescara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Pescara scores more

38%

level

23%

Spezia scores more

39%

Spezia at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

17

S. Gudjohnsen

Spezia · F

7.6

Match Events

23'

38'

43'

53'

61'

S. Gudjohnsen← E. Gyasi

62'

S. Ingelsson← M. Busellato

69'

P. Bartolomei↳ S. Gudjohnsen

71'

S. Gudjohnsen↳ J. Ramos

76'

L. Palmiero← L. Memushaj

77'

D. Burgzorg← S. Bidaoui

78'

Luca Mora

78'

G. Borrelli← H. Campagnaro

79'

Matteo Brunori

80'

José Machín

85'

M. Erlić← F. Ricci

90'

Sveinn Aron Guðjohnsen

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PescaraSpezia

Overview

43%Possession57%

8Total Shots10

4Corners4

9Fouls21

Shots

8Total Shots10

1On Target2

5Off Target4

2Blocked4

3Inside Box6

5Outside Box4

Passing

43%Possession57%

363Total Passes492

275Accurate Passes401

76%Pass Accuracy82%

Discipline

9Fouls21

4Yellow Cards3

Match Recap: Pescara vs Spezia

Spezia beat Pescara 2-1 in Serie B on October 19, 2019.

Goals: Pepín (23'), P. Bartolomei (69'), S. Gudjohnsen (71').

Spezia controlled possession (57%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Stadio Adriatico-Giovanni Cornacchia in Pescara.

Pescara vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Pescara vs Spezia