Spezia 2–2 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Palermo

G. Aurelio 90+5'

F. Esposito 90+2'

M. Brunori 72'

F. Ranocchia 1'

2/9/2025

Serie B · Round 25Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 6+ matches

Spezia43%

×Draw25%

Palermo32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.29

Spezia

1.53

Palermo

1.29

Spezia creates 19% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 15 away

1.63

creates per match

1.45

1.13

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Spezia

1.63

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Spezia

1.13

Palermo

1.43

+0.87scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.87scores more

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

68%

Spezia or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

57%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

21%

Palermo wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

78%

Spezia 2+ goals

45%

Spezia 3+ goals

20%

Palermo 1+ goals

72%

Palermo 2+ goals

37%

Palermo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

57%

Palermo (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 6 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.63 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Palermo attack 1.45 + Spezia defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Spezia scores more

43%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

32%

Spezia at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Esposito

Spezia · M

8.9

Match Events

1'

F. Ranocchia↳ S. Diakité

26'

Rayyan Baniya

29'

Matteo Brunori

30'

Aleš MatějůGoal cancelled

35'

Alexis Blin

42'

Kristoffer Lund

46'

D. Degli Innocenti← S. Elia

62'

N. Pierozzi← K. Lund

67'

R. Kouda← F. Cassata

70'

C. Gomes← A. Blin

70'

J. Le Douaron← J. Pohjanpalo

72'

M. Brunori

80'

A. Čolak← A. Reca

81'

G. Aurelio← L. Vignali

82'

D. Nikolaou← R. Baniya

83'

F. Di Francesco← M. Brunori

87'

Aleš Matějů

90+2'

F. Esposito↳ R. Kouda

90+5'

G. Aurelio↳ A. Čolak

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaPalermo

Overview

65%Possession35%

31Total Shots7

13Corners3

12Fouls21

Shots

31Total Shots7

6On Target4

14Off Target0

11Blocked3

20Inside Box5

11Outside Box2

Passing

65%Possession35%

424Total Passes247

337Accurate Passes153

79%Pass Accuracy62%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

12Fouls21

1Yellow Cards4

2Offsides0

Match Recap: Spezia vs Palermo

Spezia and Palermo drew 2-2 in Serie B on February 9, 2025.

Goals: F. Ranocchia (1'), M. Brunori (72'), F. Esposito (90+2'), G. Aurelio (90+5').

Spezia controlled possession (65%) and registered 31 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.

Spezia vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Spezia vs Palermo