Palermo 2–0 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Palermo

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spezia

P. Wiśniewski 64' (OG)

R. Baniya 35'

12/1/2024

Serie B · Round 15Stadio Renzo Barbera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Palermo53%

×Draw22%

Spezia24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PalermoExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.92

1.23

Palermo

1.92

Spezia

1.23

Palermo creates 56% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

1.94

creates per match

1.46

0.99

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Palermo

1.94

Spezia

1.46

allows per match

Palermo

0.99

Spezia

1.89

+0.39scores more than expected

finishing

-0.33scores less than expected

finishing

Palermo+0.39scores more

Spezia-0.33scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Palermo ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Palermo or draw

76%

Palermo or Spezia

78%

Draw or Spezia

47%

Winning margin

Palermo wins by 2+

31%

Spezia wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Palermo 1+ goals

85%

Palermo 2+ goals

57%

Palermo 3+ goals

30%

Spezia 1+ goals

71%

Spezia 2+ goals

35%

Spezia 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Palermo (draw refunded)

69%

Spezia (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Palermo at home — creates 1.94, concedes 0.99 · 12 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.89 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Palermo attack 1.94 + Spezia defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 1.92

Spezia attack 1.46 + Palermo defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Palermo scores more

53%

level

22%

Spezia scores more

24%

Palermo at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Palermo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

66

S. Gori

Spezia · G

8.2

Match Events

13'

16'

26'

26'

26'

N. Bertola← L. Vignali

35'

R. Baniya↳ P. Ceccaroni

41'

Filippo Ranocchia

45+2'

Petko Hristov

46'

J. Le Douaron← T. Henry

52'

Federico Di Francesco

52'

Aleš Matějů

61'

A. Vasić← V. Verre

61'

K. Lund← F. Di Francesco

62'

A. Reca← F. Cassata

62'

F. Bandinelli← A. Matějů

64'

P. WiśniewskiOwn goal

71'

P. Candelari← Á. Nagy

71'

G. Di Serio← E. Soleri

72'

F. Di Mariano← R. Insigne

78'

Giuseppe Di SerioPenalty cancelled

87'

C. Gomes← F. Ranocchia

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

PalermoSpezia

Overview

42%Possession58%

19Total Shots9

6Corners5

19Fouls21

Shots

19Total Shots9

9On Target1

5Off Target5

5Blocked3

13Inside Box8

6Outside Box1

Passing

42%Possession58%

275Total Passes360

188Accurate Passes287

68%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves7

Discipline

19Fouls21

4Yellow Cards4

0Offsides2

Match Recap: Palermo vs Spezia

Palermo beat Spezia 2-0 in Serie B on December 1, 2024.

Goals: R. Baniya (35'), P. Wiśniewski (64' o.g.).

Spezia controlled possession (58%) and registered 9 shots to 19.

The match was played at Stadio Renzo Barbera in Palermo.

Palermo vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Palermo vs Spezia