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Spezia vs Palermo — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Palermo
Palermo
G. Di Serio 16'
5/1/2024Serie BSerie B · Round 36Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Spezia42%
×Draw25%
Palermo33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.53
Palermo
1.31

Spezia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 15 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.63
Palermo
1.45

allows per match

Spezia
1.18
Palermo
1.43

finishing

Spezia+0.57scores more
Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Palermo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
67%
Spezia or Palermo
75%
Draw or Palermo
58%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
21%
Palermo wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
78%
Spezia 2+ goals
45%
Spezia 3+ goals
20%
Palermo 1+ goals
73%
Palermo 2+ goals
38%
Palermo 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
57%
Palermo (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.18 · 5 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.63 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.53

Palermo attack 1.45 + Spezia defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spezia scores more
42%
level
25%
Palermo scores more
33%

Spezia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10
S. EspositoSpeziaSpezia · M
8.5

Match Events

16'
G. Di Serio
29'
Salvatore Esposito
58'
F. Bandinelli← D. Falcinelli
62'
F. Ranocchia← A. Buttaro
65'
Luca Vignali
70'
Filippo Ranocchia
74'
Giuseppe Di Serio
74'
F. Esposito← D. Verde
75'
R. Kouda← G. Di Serio
81'
L. Henderson← C. Gomes
81'
L. Mancuso← M. Brunori
85'
C. Traorè← S. Diakité
87'
Leonardo Mancuso
90+6'
Liam Henderson
90'
Federico Di Francesco

Possession

41%Spezia

Shots

12Spezia

Pass accuracy

48%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaPalermo
Overview
41%Possession59%
12Total Shots8
5Corners3
16Fouls19
Shots
12Total Shots8
3On Target1
7Off Target4
2Blocked3
8Inside Box4
4Outside Box4
Passing
41%Possession59%
294Total Passes435
206Accurate Passes332
70%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
Discipline
16Fouls19
3Yellow Cards4
2Offsides0

Serie B: Spezia 1–0 Palermo

Spezia beat Palermo 1-0 in Serie B on May 1, 2024.

Goals: G. Di Serio (16').

Palermo controlled possession (59%) and registered 8 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.