Spezia 1–1 Palermo: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Palermo

E. Capradossi 34'

C. Falletti 25'

12/23/2018

Serie B · Round 17Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 9+ matches

Spezia41%

×Draw25%

Palermo34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchPalermo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.31

Spezia

1.47

Palermo

1.31

Spezia creates 12% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 15 away

1.51

creates per match

1.45

1.17

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Spezia

1.51

Palermo

1.45

allows per match

Spezia

1.17

Palermo

1.43

+0.27scores more than expected

finishing

-0.25scores less than expected

finishing

Spezia+0.27scores more

Palermo-0.25scores less

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Palermo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

66%

Spezia or Palermo

75%

Draw or Palermo

59%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

20%

Palermo wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

77%

Spezia 2+ goals

43%

Spezia 3+ goals

18%

Palermo 1+ goals

73%

Palermo 2+ goals

38%

Palermo 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

55%

Palermo (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.17 · 9 matches

Palermo away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.43 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.51 + Palermo defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.47

Palermo attack 1.45 + Spezia defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Spezia scores more

41%

level

25%

Palermo scores more

34%

Spezia at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

C. Falletti↳ S. Moreo

34'

E. Capradossi↳ P. Bartolomei

38'

Radosław Murawski

59'

Haitam Aleesami

65'

I. Chochev← R. Murawski

71'

Alessandro Salvi

76'

A. Rispoli← A. Salvi

81'

Giuseppe Bellusci

81'

S. Bastoni← N. Pierini

83'

Carlos Embalo← G. Puşcaş

86'

Emmanuel Gyasi

87'

S. Gudjohnsen← E. Gyasi

90'

Filippo De Col

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SpeziaPalermo

Overview

46%Possession54%

9Total Shots12

5Corners7

10Fouls12

Shots

9Total Shots12

5On Target6

4Off Target6

Passing

46%Possession54%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls12

2Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards0

0Offsides2