Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Spezia vs Mantova — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Mantova
Mantova
N. Buso 72'
D. Bragantini 32'
4/12/2026Serie BSerie B · Round 34Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Spezia50%
×Draw24%
Mantova26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.71
Mantova
1.18

Spezia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.64
Mantova
1.33

allows per match

Spezia
1.03
Mantova
1.79

finishing

Spezia+0.36scores more
Mantova+0.03on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Mantova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
74%
Spezia or Mantova
76%
Draw or Mantova
50%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
27%
Mantova wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
82%
Spezia 2+ goals
51%
Spezia 3+ goals
24%
Mantova 1+ goals
69%
Mantova 2+ goals
33%
Mantova 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
65%
Mantova (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 8 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.64 + Mantova defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mantova attack 1.33 + Spezia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spezia scores more
50%
level
24%
Mantova scores more
26%

Spezia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24
F. BardiMantovaMantova · G
8.2

Match Events

13'
Alessandro Romano
26'
L. Mancuso← D. Mensah
28'
Ali Dembélé
32'
D. Bragantini↳ T. Maggioni
45+3'
Simone Trimboli
46'
B. Radunovic← D. Mascardi
46'
L. Sernicola← G. Aurelio
46'
G. Lapadula← G. Di Serio
49'
Filippo Bandinelli
56'
L. Vignali← C. Comotto
71'
N. Buso← D. Bragantini
71'
T. Marras← F. Ruocco
72'
N. Buso↳ S. Trimboli
74'
V. Vlahovic← G. Artistico
79'
Rachid Kouda

Possession

44%Spezia

Shots

12Spezia

Pass accuracy

47%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaMantova
Overview
44%Possession56%
12Total Shots13
2.41Expected Goals (xG)1.00
6Corners0
21Fouls12
Shots
12Total Shots13
3On Target5
6Off Target2
3Blocked6
10Inside Box8
2Outside Box5
Passing
44%Possession56%
304Total Passes412
200Accurate Passes307
66%Pass Accuracy75%
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
1.20Goals Prevented1.20
Discipline
21Fouls12
2Yellow Cards3
1Offsides2

Match Recap: Spezia vs Mantova

Mantova beat Spezia 2-0 in Serie B on April 12, 2026.

Goals: D. Bragantini (32'), N. Buso (72').

Mantova controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 12.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.