Mantova 4–1 Spezia: Result & Stats | Serie B

Mantova

FT

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Spezia

T. Marras 90', 81'

S. Cella 58'

F. Ruocco 33'

G. Aurelio 4'

11/23/2025

Serie B · Round 13Stadio Danilo Martelli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Mantova44%

×Draw23%

Spezia33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MantovaExpected goals in this matchSpezia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.44

Mantova

1.71

Spezia

1.44

Mantova creates 19% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 12 away

1.51

creates per match

1.71

1.16

allows per match

1.90

creates per match

Mantova

1.51

Spezia

1.71

allows per match

Mantova

1.16

Spezia

1.90

+0.18scores more than expected

finishing

-0.54scores less than expected

finishing

Mantova+0.18scores more

Spezia-0.54scores less

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mantova ↓

Spezia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Mantova or draw

67%

Mantova or Spezia

77%

Draw or Spezia

56%

Winning margin

Mantova wins by 2+

23%

Spezia wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Mantova 1+ goals

82%

Mantova 2+ goals

51%

Mantova 3+ goals

24%

Spezia 1+ goals

76%

Spezia 2+ goals

42%

Spezia 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Mantova (draw refunded)

58%

Spezia (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mantova at home — creates 1.51, concedes 1.16 · 13 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.90 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mantova attack 1.51 + Spezia defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.71

Spezia attack 1.71 + Mantova defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mantova scores more

44%

level

23%

Spezia scores more

33%

Mantova at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mantova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

T. Marras

Mantova · F

9.0

Match Events

4'

G. Aurelio

10'

Francesco Cassata

21'

Giuseppe Di Serio

33'

Przemysław Wiśniewski

33'

46'

53'

58'

59'

A. Cistana← Fellipe Jack

59'

F. Bandinelli← L. Vignali

60'

T. Marras← F. Galuppini

61'

D. Mensah← L. Mancuso

69'

G. Artistico← G. Di Serio

69'

P. Beruatto← A. Candela

78'

T. Maggioni← A. Castellini

78'

M. Caprini← F. Ruocco

81'

T. Marras↳ S. Trimboli

84'

Filippo Bandinelli

85'

F. Paoletti← D. Wieser

87'

Cristiano Bani

90+3'

Francesco Cassata

90+3'

Francesco Cassata

90'

T. Marras↳ S. Trimboli

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

MantovaSpezia

Overview

67%Possession33%

23Total Shots10

3.18Expected Goals (xG)2.62

8Corners2

13Fouls16

Shots

23Total Shots10

11On Target5

8Off Target3

4Blocked2

17Inside Box10

6Outside Box0

Passing

67%Possession33%

608Total Passes300

545Accurate Passes233

90%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

4Saves7

Discipline

13Fouls16

2Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1

Match Recap: Mantova vs Spezia

Mantova beat Spezia 4-1 in Serie B on November 23, 2025.

Goals: G. Aurelio (4'), F. Ruocco (33'), S. Cella (58'), T. Marras (81', 90').

Mantova controlled possession (67%) and registered 23 shots to 10.

The match was played at Stadio Danilo Martelli in Mantova.

Mantova vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Mantova vs Spezia