Spezia 1–1 Mantova: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Mantova

D. Falcinelli 90+3'

A. Debenedetti 18'

12/26/2024

Serie B · Round 19Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 8+ matches

Spezia50%

×Draw24%

Mantova26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchMantova

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.18

Spezia

1.71

Mantova

1.18

Spezia creates 45% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 11 away

1.64

creates per match

1.33

1.03

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Spezia

1.64

Mantova

1.33

allows per match

Spezia

1.03

Mantova

1.79

+0.36scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Spezia+0.36scores more

Mantova+0.03on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes57
No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Mantova →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

74%

Spezia or Mantova

76%

Draw or Mantova

50%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

27%

Mantova wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

82%

Spezia 2+ goals

51%

Spezia 3+ goals

24%

Mantova 1+ goals

69%

Mantova 2+ goals

33%

Mantova 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

65%

Mantova (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.64, concedes 1.03 · 8 matches

Mantova away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.79 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.64 + Mantova defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Mantova attack 1.33 + Spezia defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Spezia scores more

50%

level

24%

Mantova scores more

26%

Spezia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

S. Esposito

Spezia · M

9.2

Match Events

6'

Simone Trimboli

12'

Fabrizio Brignani

18'

A. Debenedetti↳ F. Galuppini

24'

30'

30'

33'

45+1'

46'

D. Falcinelli← Á. Nagy

60'

G. Aurelio← A. Reca

61'

G. Di Serio← A. Čolak

63'

Salvatore Elia

64'

F. Bandinelli← A. Matějů

68'

Francesco Pio EspositoGoal cancelled

68'

D. Mensah← A. Debenedetti

69'

G. Fedel← F. Galuppini

73'

74'

76'

77'

80'

E. Soleri← D. Degli Innocenti

90+3'

D. Falcinelli↳ N. Bertola

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpeziaMantova

Overview

66%Possession34%

26Total Shots5

8Corners3

22Fouls16

Shots

26Total Shots5

5On Target2

12Off Target2

9Blocked1

18Inside Box2

8Outside Box3

Passing

66%Possession34%

400Total Passes222

340Accurate Passes143

85%Pass Accuracy64%

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

Discipline

22Fouls16

3Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards1

4Offsides1