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Spezia vs Lecce — Serie B 2018

Spezia
Spezia
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Lecce
Lecce
M. Ricci 13' (pen)
M. Scavone 68'
12/30/2018Serie BSerie B · Round 19Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Spezia38%
×Draw27%
Lecce35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.30
Lecce
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 93 home / 55 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.40
Lecce
1.45

allows per match

Spezia
1.06
Lecce
1.20

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par
Lecce+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Lecce →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
65%
Spezia or Lecce
73%
Draw or Lecce
62%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
17%
Lecce wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
73%
Spezia 2+ goals
37%
Spezia 3+ goals
14%
Lecce 1+ goals
71%
Lecce 2+ goals
36%
Lecce 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
52%
Lecce (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.06 · 93 matches

Lecce away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.20 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.40 + Lecce defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.30

Lecce attack 1.45 + Spezia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spezia scores more
38%
level
27%
Lecce scores more
35%

Spezia at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
M. RicciPenalty
28'
Cesare Bovo
40'
Luca Vignali
48'
Luca Mora
55'
Jacopo Petriccione
55'
S. Pettinari← A. La Mantia
58'
F. Falco← J. Petriccione
62'
A. De Francesco← P. Bartolomei
65'
Elio Capradossi
67'
D. Okereke← E. Gyasi
68'
M. Scavone↳ L. Venuti
73'
Simone Palombi
74'
Lorenzo Venuti
77'
S. Bidaoui← N. Pierini
80'
B. Meccariello← L. Venuti

Possession

48%Spezia

Shots

7Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaLecce
Overview
48%Possession52%
7Total Shots13
2Corners7
14Fouls8
Shots
7Total Shots13
4On Target2
3Off Target11
Passing
48%Possession52%
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
Discipline
14Fouls8
3Yellow Cards4
0Red Cards0
2Offsides2

Spezia 1 – 1 Lecce

Spezia and Lecce drew 1-1 in Serie B on December 30, 2018.

Goals: M. Ricci (13' pen), M. Scavone (68').

Lecce controlled possession (52%) and registered 13 shots to 7.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.