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Lecce vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Lecce
Lecce
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
A. La Mantia 27'
J. Petriccione 9'
E. Capradossi 83'
5/11/2019Serie BSerie B · Round 38Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 56+ matches

Lecce51%
×Draw24%
Spezia25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.66
Spezia
1.08

Lecce creates 54% more chances

Season form · 56 home / 91 away

creates per match

Lecce
1.98
Spezia
1.13

allows per match

Lecce
1.04
Spezia
1.34

finishing

Lecce+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
75%
Lecce or Spezia
76%
Draw or Spezia
49%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
27%
Spezia wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
81%
Lecce 2+ goals
49%
Lecce 3+ goals
23%
Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
67%
Spezia (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 1.98, concedes 1.04 · 56 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 1.98 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.66

Spezia attack 1.13 + Lecce defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Lecce scores more
51%
level
24%
Spezia scores more
25%

Lecce at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Lecce will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
J. Petriccione
13'
Fabio Lucioni
27'
A. La Mantia↳ F. Falco
52'
Matteo Ricci
62'
D. Okereke← E. Gyasi
67'
M. Crimi← L. Mora
74'
S. Palombi← A. La Mantia
78'
S. Bidaoui← A. da Cruz
80'
A. Tabanelli← Ž. Majer
83'
E. Capradossi↳ M. Ricci
87'
M. Scavone← F. Falco

Possession

42%Lecce

Shots

8Lecce

Statistics

LecceSpezia
Overview
42%Possession58%
8Total Shots10
6Corners9
9Fouls15
Shots
8Total Shots10
5On Target4
3Off Target6
Passing
42%Possession58%
Goalkeeping
3Saves3
Discipline
9Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
2Offsides0

Serie B: Lecce 2–1 Spezia

Lecce beat Spezia 2-1 in Serie B on May 11, 2019.

Goals: J. Petriccione (9'), A. La Mantia (27'), E. Capradossi (83').

Spezia controlled possession (58%) and registered 10 shots to 8.

The match was played at Via del Mare in Lecce.