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Lecce vs Spezia — Serie A 2026

Lecce
Lecce
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spezia
Spezia
5/21/2023Serie ASerie A · Round 36Stadio Comunale Via del Mare

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 5+ matches

Lecce31%
×Draw27%
Spezia42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lecce
1.11
Spezia
1.33

Spezia creates 20% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 5 away

creates per match

Lecce
0.98
Spezia
1.33

allows per match

Lecce
1.34
Spezia
1.25

finishing

Lecce-0.31scores less
Spezia+0.07on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lecce ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Lecce or draw
58%
Lecce or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
69%

Winning margin

Lecce wins by 2+
12%
Spezia wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Lecce 1+ goals
67%
Lecce 2+ goals
30%
Lecce 3+ goals
10%
Spezia 1+ goals
74%
Spezia 2+ goals
38%
Spezia 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Lecce (draw refunded)
43%
Spezia (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lecce at home — creates 0.98, concedes 1.34 · 42 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.25 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lecce attack 0.98 + Spezia defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.11

Spezia attack 1.33 + Lecce defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Lecce scores more
31%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
42%

Spezia at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

6
F. BaschirottoLecceLecce · D
7.9

Match Events

49'
Samuel Umtiti
59'
Przemysław Wiśniewski
59'
K. Askildsen← Joan Gonzàlez
59'
A. Ceesay← L. Colombo
63'
K. Agudelo← E. Shomurodov
63'
S. Żurkowski← M. Bourabia
83'
Salvador Ferrer← E. Gyasi
86'
Salvatore Esposito
88'
M'Bala Nzola
89'
Alexis Blin
90+2'
G. Pezzella← F. Di Francesco

Possession

40%Lecce

Shots

6Lecce

Pass accuracy

47%Lecce

Statistics

LecceSpezia
Overview
40%Possession60%
6Total Shots14
0.29Expected Goals (xG)0.79
2Corners5
15Fouls16
Shots
6Total Shots14
1On Target0
3Off Target8
2Blocked6
1Inside Box4
5Outside Box10
Passing
40%Possession60%
268Total Passes415
183Accurate Passes320
68%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
0Saves1
Discipline
15Fouls16
2Yellow Cards3
2Offsides0

Lecce 0 – 0 Spezia

Lecce and Spezia drew 0-0 in Serie A on May 21, 2023.

Spezia controlled possession (60%) and registered 14 shots to 6.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Via del Mare in Lecce.