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Spezia vs Crotone — Serie A 2026

Spezia
Spezia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Crotone
Crotone
M. Erlić 90+2'
G. Maggiore 89'
D. Verde 63'
S. Nwankwo 78'
K. Djidji 40'
4/10/2021Serie ASerie A · Round 30Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Spezia49%
×Draw23%
Crotone28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spezia
1.82
Crotone
1.31

Spezia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 32 away

creates per match

Spezia
1.17
Crotone
0.97

allows per match

Spezia
1.66
Crotone
2.47

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par
Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Crotone →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Spezia or draw
72%
Spezia or Crotone
77%
Draw or Crotone
51%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+
27%
Crotone wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals
84%
Spezia 2+ goals
54%
Spezia 3+ goals
27%
Crotone 1+ goals
73%
Crotone 2+ goals
38%
Crotone 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)
64%
Crotone (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.66 · 58 matches

Crotone away — creates 0.97, concedes 2.47 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.17 + Crotone defence 2.47 → ÷2 → 1.82

Crotone attack 0.97 + Spezia defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spezia scores more
49%
level
23%
Crotone scores more
28%

Spezia at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28
M. ErlićSpeziaSpezia · D
8.7

Match Events

26'
Arkadiusz Reca
33'
Ardian Ismajli
39'
L. Magallán← Ahmed Benali
40'
K. Djidji↳ L. Magallán
46'
Léo Sena← M. Ricci
46'
Diego Farias← E. Gyasi
63'
D. Verde↳ R. Marchizza
69'
N. Zanellato← S. Molina
70'
L. Vignali← Salvador Ferrer
70'
K. Agudelo← D. Verde
78'
S. Nwankwo↳ N. Zanellato
81'
S. Di Carmine← A. Ounas
84'
A. Galabinov← T. Pobega
89'
G. Maggiore↳ M. Erlić
90+2'
M. Erlić

Possession

60%Spezia

Shots

7Spezia

Pass accuracy

52%Spezia

Statistics

SpeziaCrotone
Overview
60%Possession40%
7Total Shots9
3Corners4
12Fouls15
Shots
7Total Shots9
3On Target5
2Off Target1
2Blocked3
6Inside Box7
1Outside Box2
Passing
60%Possession40%
568Total Passes377
479Accurate Passes293
84%Pass Accuracy78%
Goalkeeping
3Saves0
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow Cards1
3Offsides3

Serie A: Spezia 3–2 Crotone

Spezia beat Crotone 3-2 in Serie A on April 10, 2021.

Goals: K. Djidji (40'), D. Verde (63'), S. Nwankwo (78'), G. Maggiore (89'), M. Erlić (90+2').

Spezia controlled possession (60%) and registered 7 shots to 9.

The match was played at Stadio Alberto Picco in La Spezia.