Spezia 2–0 Crotone: Result & Stats | Serie B

Spezia

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Crotone

S. Bidaoui 81'

A. Galabinov 25'

5/4/2019

Serie B · Round 37Stadio Alberto Picco

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Spezia46%

×Draw26%

Crotone28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SpeziaExpected goals in this matchCrotone

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.09

Spezia

1.46

Crotone

1.09

Spezia creates 34% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 51 away

1.40

creates per match

1.12

1.06

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Spezia

1.40

Crotone

1.12

allows per match

Spezia

1.06

Crotone

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spezia+0.00on par

Crotone+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spezia ↓

Crotone →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Spezia or draw

72%

Spezia or Crotone

74%

Draw or Crotone

54%

Winning margin

Spezia wins by 2+

22%

Crotone wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spezia 1+ goals

77%

Spezia 2+ goals

43%

Spezia 3+ goals

18%

Crotone 1+ goals

66%

Crotone 2+ goals

30%

Crotone 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Spezia (draw refunded)

62%

Crotone (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spezia at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.06 · 93 matches

Crotone away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spezia attack 1.40 + Crotone defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.46

Crotone attack 1.12 + Spezia defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spezia scores more

46%

level

26%

Crotone scores more

28%

Spezia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spezia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

25'

A. Galabinov↳ T. Augello

31'

Sauli Väisänen

39'

Hrvoje Milić

44'

M. Sampirisi← M. Curado

45'

Niccolò Zanellato

55'

S. Mráz← Z. Machach

69'

G. Maggiore← P. Bartolomei

76'

A. Kargbo← M. Firenze

79'

S. Bidaoui← A. da Cruz

81'

S. Bidaoui↳ E. Gyasi

90'

Luca Mora

90'

M. Crimi← E. Gyasi

Possession

Shots

Statistics

SpeziaCrotone

Overview

48%Possession52%

7Total Shots7

3Corners6

16Fouls21

Shots

7Total Shots7

2On Target3

5Off Target4

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

3Saves0

Discipline

16Fouls21

1Yellow Cards3

4Offsides1