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Crotone vs Spezia — Serie B 2018

Crotone
Crotone
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Spezia
Spezia
M. López 47' (pen)
A. Ragusa 78'
M. N'Zola 34'
1/26/2020Serie BSerie B · Round 21Stadio Ezio Scida

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Crotone44%
×Draw27%
Spezia29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Crotone
1.40
Spezia
1.07

Crotone creates 31% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 91 away

creates per match

Crotone
1.46
Spezia
1.13

allows per match

Crotone
1.02
Spezia
1.34

finishing

Crotone+0.00on par
Spezia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Crotone ↓

Spezia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Crotone or draw
71%
Crotone or Spezia
73%
Draw or Spezia
56%

Winning margin

Crotone wins by 2+
21%
Spezia wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Crotone 1+ goals
75%
Crotone 2+ goals
41%
Crotone 3+ goals
17%
Spezia 1+ goals
66%
Spezia 2+ goals
29%
Spezia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Crotone (draw refunded)
61%
Spezia (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Crotone at home — creates 1.46, concedes 1.02 · 50 matches

Spezia away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.34 · 91 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Crotone attack 1.46 + Spezia defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spezia attack 1.13 + Crotone defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Crotone scores more
44%
level
27%
Spezia scores more
29%

Crotone at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Crotone will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11
E. GyasiSpeziaSpezia · F
7.5

Match Events

29'
Simy
34'
M. N'Zola↳ R. Marchizza
38'
Matteo Ricci
46'
M. López← S. Nwankwo
47'
Salvador Ferrer
47'
M. LópezPenalty
53'
Emmanuel Gyasi
67'
F. Ricci← M. NZola
73'
G. Acampora← G. Maggiore
77'
A. Nalini← G. Crociata
77'
M. Mustacchio← A. Mazzotta
78'
A. Ragusa↳ E. Gyasi
84'
Luca Mora
89'
Vladimir Golemić
90'
Luca Marrone
90'
Junior Messias
90+1'
A. Galabinov← A. Ragusa

Possession

53%Crotone

Shots

6Crotone

Pass accuracy

51%Crotone

Statistics

CrotoneSpezia
Overview
53%Possession47%
6Total Shots11
6Corners8
19Fouls18
Shots
6Total Shots11
2On Target3
3Off Target5
1Blocked3
5Inside Box4
1Outside Box7
Passing
53%Possession47%
505Total Passes430
397Accurate Passes328
79%Pass Accuracy76%
Goalkeeping
1Saves1
Discipline
19Fouls18
4Yellow Cards4
3Offsides7

Match Recap: Crotone vs Spezia

Spezia beat Crotone 2-1 in Serie B on January 26, 2020.

Goals: M. N'Zola (34'), M. López (47' pen), A. Ragusa (78').

Crotone controlled possession (53%) and registered 6 shots to 11.

The match was played at Stadio Ezio Scida in Crotone.