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Speranța Drochia vs Floreşti — Super Liga 2026

Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
Floreşti
Floreşti
4/20/2024Super LigaSuper Liga · Promotion Group - 7Complexul Sportiv Drochia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Speranța Drochia40%
×Draw24%
Floreşti36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speranța Drochia
1.61
Floreşti
1.51

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 5 home / 62 away

creates per match

Speranța Drochia
0.40
Floreşti
0.81

allows per match

Speranța Drochia
2.20
Floreşti
2.82

finishing

Speranța Drochia+0.00on par
Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranța Drochia ↓

Floreşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Speranța Drochia or draw
64%
Speranța Drochia or Floreşti
76%
Draw or Floreşti
60%

Winning margin

Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
20%
Floreşti wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
80%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
48%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
22%
Floreşti 1+ goals
78%
Floreşti 2+ goals
44%
Floreşti 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
53%
Floreşti (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranța Drochia at home — creates 0.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

Floreşti away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.82 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranța Drochia attack 0.40 + Floreşti defence 2.82 → ÷2 → 1.61

Floreşti attack 0.81 + Speranța Drochia defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Speranța Drochia scores more
40%
level
24%
Floreşti scores more
36%

Speranța Drochia at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Speranța Drochia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super Liga: Speranța Drochia 0–3 Floreşti

Floreşti beat Speranța Drochia 3-0 in Super Liga on April 20, 2024.

The match was played at Complexul Sportiv Drochia in Drochia.