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Floreşti vs Speranța Drochia — League #395 2026

Floreşti
Floreşti
FT
3 – 1
Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
6/16/2019League #395League #395 · Round 7Baza Zimbru

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Floreşti64%
×Draw18%
Speranța Drochia17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Floreşti
2.42
Speranța Drochia
1.18

Floreşti creates 105% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

creates per match

Floreşti
2.50
Speranța Drochia
1.11

allows per match

Floreşti
1.25
Speranța Drochia
2.33

finishing

Floreşti+0.00on par
Speranța Drochia+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Floreşti ↓

Speranța Drochia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Floreşti or draw
83%
Floreşti or Speranța Drochia
82%
Draw or Speranța Drochia
36%

Winning margin

Floreşti wins by 2+
42%
Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Floreşti 1+ goals
91%
Floreşti 2+ goals
69%
Floreşti 3+ goals
43%
Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
69%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
33%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Floreşti (draw refunded)
79%
Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Floreşti at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

Speranța Drochia away — creates 1.11, concedes 2.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Floreşti attack 2.50 + Speranța Drochia defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.42

Speranța Drochia attack 1.11 + Floreşti defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Floreşti scores more
64%
level
18%
Speranța Drochia scores more
17%

Floreşti at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Floreşti 3–1 Speranța Drochia

Floreşti beat Speranța Drochia 3-1 in League #395 on June 16, 2019.

The match was played at Baza Zimbru in Chişinău.