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Speranța Drochia vs Floreşti — League #395 2026

Speranța Drochia
Speranța Drochia
FT
4 – 3
Floreşti
Floreşti
9/29/2019League #395League #395 · Round 18Stadionul Orăşenesc

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Speranța Drochia20%
×Draw16%
Floreşti64%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Speranța Drochia
1.85
Floreşti
3.27

Floreşti creates 77% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 3 away

creates per match

Speranța Drochia
1.71
Floreşti
4.67

allows per match

Speranța Drochia
1.86
Floreşti
2.00

finishing

Speranța Drochia+0.00on par
Floreşti+0.00on par

Total goals

88%Over
  • Over88
  • Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

81%Yes
  • Yes81
  • No19

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Speranța Drochia ↓

Floreşti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–23%
0–34%
0–43%
1
1–01%
1–14%
1–26%
1–37%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–26%
2–36%
2–45%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–24%
3–34%
3–43%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–3 (7%) · grid covers 78% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
96%4%2.5
88%12%3.5
74%26%4.5
56%44%

Double chance

Speranța Drochia or draw
36%
Speranța Drochia or Floreşti
84%
Draw or Floreşti
80%

Winning margin

Speranța Drochia wins by 2+
9%
Floreşti wins by 2+
45%

Team goals

Speranța Drochia 1+ goals
84%
Speranța Drochia 2+ goals
55%
Speranța Drochia 3+ goals
28%
Floreşti 1+ goals
96%
Floreşti 2+ goals
83%
Floreşti 3+ goals
62%

Draw no bet

Speranța Drochia (draw refunded)
24%
Floreşti (draw refunded)
76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
77%
Both score & under 3
4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Speranța Drochia at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Floreşti away — creates 4.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Speranța Drochia attack 1.71 + Floreşti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.85

Floreşti attack 4.67 + Speranța Drochia defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 3.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Speranța Drochia scores more
20%
level
16%
Floreşti scores more
64%

Floreşti at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Floreşti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #395: Speranța Drochia 4–3 Floreşti

Speranța Drochia beat Floreşti 4-3 in League #395 on September 29, 2019.

The match was played at Stadionul Orăşenesc in Rîşcani.