Spartak Varna 3–1 Dunav Ruse: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Dunav Ruse

3/30/2024

Second League · Round 26Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Spartak Varna46%

×Draw27%

Dunav Ruse27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchDunav Ruse

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

0.99

Spartak Varna

1.38

Dunav Ruse

0.99

Spartak Varna creates 39% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 69 away

1.63

creates per match

1.19

0.80

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.63

Dunav Ruse

1.19

allows per match

Spartak Varna

0.80

Dunav Ruse

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Dunav Ruse →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

73%

Spartak Varna or Dunav Ruse

73%

Draw or Dunav Ruse

54%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

22%

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

75%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

40%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

16%

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals

63%

Dunav Ruse 2+ goals

26%

Dunav Ruse 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

63%

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Dunav Ruse away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.14 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.63 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.38

Dunav Ruse attack 1.19 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.99

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

46%

level

27%

Dunav Ruse scores more

27%

Spartak Varna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff