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Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna — Second League 2018

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
9/17/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 9Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Dunav Ruse49%
×Draw26%
Spartak Varna25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.48
Spartak Varna
0.98

Dunav Ruse creates 51% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 45 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.45
Spartak Varna
1.29

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
0.67
Spartak Varna
1.51

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
75%
Dunav Ruse or Spartak Varna
74%
Draw or Spartak Varna
51%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
24%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
77%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
43%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
19%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
62%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
26%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
66%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.45, concedes 0.67 · 69 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.51 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.45 + Spartak Varna defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Varna attack 1.29 + Dunav Ruse defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
49%
level
26%
Spartak Varna scores more
25%

Dunav Ruse at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Dunav Ruse 0–1 Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna beat Dunav Ruse 1-0 in Second League on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Rousse.