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Dunav Ruse vs Spartak Varna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Dunav Ruse
Dunav Ruse
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Spartak Varna
Spartak Varna
1/24/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Dunav Ruse40%
×Draw26%
Spartak Varna34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Dunav Ruse
1.42
Spartak Varna
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 10 away

creates per match

Dunav Ruse
1.83
Spartak Varna
1.10

allows per match

Dunav Ruse
1.50
Spartak Varna
1.00

finishing

Dunav Ruse+0.00on par
Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Dunav Ruse ↓

Spartak Varna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Dunav Ruse or draw
66%
Dunav Ruse or Spartak Varna
74%
Draw or Spartak Varna
60%

Winning margin

Dunav Ruse wins by 2+
19%
Spartak Varna wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Dunav Ruse 1+ goals
76%
Dunav Ruse 2+ goals
41%
Dunav Ruse 3+ goals
17%
Spartak Varna 1+ goals
73%
Spartak Varna 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Varna 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Dunav Ruse (draw refunded)
54%
Spartak Varna (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Dunav Ruse at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Dunav Ruse attack 1.83 + Spartak Varna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Spartak Varna attack 1.10 + Dunav Ruse defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Dunav Ruse scores more
40%
level
26%
Spartak Varna scores more
34%

Dunav Ruse at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Dunav Ruse will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Dunav Ruse 1–3 Spartak Varna

Spartak Varna beat Dunav Ruse 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 24, 2026.