Spartak Varna 2–0 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

Spartak Varna

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

2/17/2024

Second League · Round 21Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Spartak Varna52%

×Draw26%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchChernomorets 1919 Burgas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.51

0.87

Spartak Varna

1.51

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.87

Spartak Varna creates 74% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 33 away

1.63

creates per match

0.94

0.80

allows per match

1.39

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.63

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.94

allows per match

Spartak Varna

0.80

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.39

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

78%

Spartak Varna or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

74%

Draw or Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

48%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

27%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

78%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

44%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

19%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

58%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

22%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

71%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.63, concedes 0.80 · 46 matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.39 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.63 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.51

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 0.94 + Spartak Varna defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

52%

level

26%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

22%

Spartak Varna at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Spartak Varna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff