Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 0–0 Spartak Varna

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Varna

8/8/2023

Second League · Round 4Efbet Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas45%

×Draw27%

Spartak Varna28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets 1919 BurgasExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.40

1.04

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.40

Spartak Varna

1.04

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 35% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 46 away

1.21

creates per match

1.26

0.82

allows per match

1.59

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.21

Spartak Varna

1.26

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

0.82

Spartak Varna

1.59

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw

72%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Spartak Varna

73%

Draw or Spartak Varna

55%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

22%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

75%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

41%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

17%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

65%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

28%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

62%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.82 · 33 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.59 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 1.21 + Spartak Varna defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spartak Varna attack 1.26 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

45%

level

27%

Spartak Varna scores more

28%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff