Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3–1 Spartak Varna

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

FT

3 – 1

Spartak Varna

7/8/2020

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 4

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas53%

×Draw22%

Spartak Varna25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Chernomorets 1919 BurgasExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.00

1.30

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

2.00

Spartak Varna

1.30

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas creates 54% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 10 away

3.00

creates per match

1.10

1.50

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

3.00

Spartak Varna

1.10

allows per match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas

1.50

Spartak Varna

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or draw

75%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas or Spartak Varna

78%

Draw or Spartak Varna

47%

Winning margin

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas wins by 2+

31%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1+ goals

86%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 2+ goals

59%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3+ goals

32%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

73%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

37%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas (draw refunded)

68%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at home — creates 3.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas attack 3.00 + Spartak Varna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Spartak Varna attack 1.10 + Chernomorets 1919 Burgas defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas scores more

53%

level

22%

Spartak Varna scores more

25%

Chernomorets 1919 Burgas at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Chernomorets 1919 Burgas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff