Spartak Varna 3–2 Botev Plovdiv: Result & Stats

Spartak Varna

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Botev Plovdiv

Berna 77' (pen), 50'

G. Stojanovski 14'

A. Okoflex 68'

S. Tsonov 42'

10/24/2025

First League · Round 13Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Spartak Varna36%

×Draw25%

Botev Plovdiv39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak VarnaExpected goals in this matchBotev Plovdiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.48

Spartak Varna

1.41

Botev Plovdiv

1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 17 away

1.15

creates per match

1.16

1.80

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Spartak Varna

1.15

Botev Plovdiv

1.16

allows per match

Spartak Varna

1.80

Botev Plovdiv

1.67

+0.21scores more than expected

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Spartak Varna+0.21scores more

Botev Plovdiv+0.02on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Varna ↓

Botev Plovdiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Spartak Varna or draw

61%

Spartak Varna or Botev Plovdiv

75%

Draw or Botev Plovdiv

64%

Winning margin

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

17%

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

76%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

41%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

17%

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

77%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

43%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

48%

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Varna at home — creates 1.15, concedes 1.80 · 14 matches

Botev Plovdiv away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.67 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Varna attack 1.15 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.41

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.16 + Spartak Varna defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Spartak Varna scores more

36%

level

25%

Botev Plovdiv scores more

39%

Botev Plovdiv at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

G. Stojanovski

Spartak Varna · F

8.3

Match Events

14'

G. Stojanovski↳ Berna

25'

Lucas Araujo← T. Nedelev

42'

S. Tsonov↳ N. Minkov

45'

Ilker Budinov

48'

Ivaylo Videv

50'

Berna↳ G. Stojanovski

56'

63'

63'

68'

77'

BernaPenalty

80'

S. Petkov← O. Abraham

80'

S. Kalu← E. Kwateng

84'

Z. Pehlivanov← D. Ivanov

90'

Damyan Yordanov

90+1'

I. Aleksiev← Berna

90+4'

D. Halachev← G. Stojanovski

90+1'

A. Georgiev← D. Yordanov

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartakBotev

Overview

50%Possession50%

12Total Shots13

1.88Expected Goals (xG)2.38

2Corners5

12Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots13

6On Target6

1Off Target4

5Blocked3

4Inside Box7

8Outside Box6

Passing

50%Possession50%

326Total Passes362

267Accurate Passes302

82%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

Discipline

12Fouls9

3Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

2Offsides3