Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Spartak Varna

T. Nedelev 45'

1/28/2026

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendly

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 10+ matches

Botev Plovdiv57%

×Draw25%

Spartak Varna18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

0.79

Botev Plovdiv

1.62

Spartak Varna

0.79

Botev Plovdiv creates 105% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 10 away

2.24

creates per match

1.10

0.47

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv

2.24

Spartak Varna

1.10

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv

0.47

Spartak Varna

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.00on par

Spartak Varna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–112%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw

82%

Botev Plovdiv or Spartak Varna

75%

Draw or Spartak Varna

43%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

31%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

80%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

48%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

22%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

55%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

19%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

76%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 2.24, concedes 0.47 · 17 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.00 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 2.24 + Spartak Varna defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.62

Spartak Varna attack 1.10 + Botev Plovdiv defence 0.47 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more

57%

level

25%

Spartak Varna scores more

18%

Botev Plovdiv at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

T. Nedelev

Botev

Spartak

23

3

5

7

10

13

17

20

21

44

2

29

4

7

8

⚽

9

11

22

77

42

41

27

Manager: Dimitar Dimitrov

Manager: Gjoko Hadzievski

Friendlies Clubs: Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak Varna

Botev Plovdiv beat Spartak Varna 1-0 in Friendlies Clubs on January 28, 2026.

Goals: T. Nedelev (45').

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Friendlies Clubs: Botev Plovdiv 1–0 Spartak Varna