Botev Plovdiv 5–0 Spartak Varna: Result & Stats

Botev Plovdiv

FT

5 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Spartak Varna

Mascote 72'

S. Kalu 53', 18'

T. Nedelev 45'

E. Kwateng 12'

4/4/2026

First League · Round 28Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 16+ matches

Botev Plovdiv49%

×Draw25%

Spartak Varna26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 582,215 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Botev PlovdivExpected goals in this matchSpartak Varna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.57

1.06

Botev Plovdiv

1.57

Spartak Varna

1.06

Botev Plovdiv creates 48% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 17 away

1.17

creates per match

0.63

1.49

allows per match

1.97

creates per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.17

Spartak Varna

0.63

allows per match

Botev Plovdiv

1.49

Spartak Varna

1.97

+0.08on par

finishing

+0.02on par

finishing

Botev Plovdiv+0.08on par

Spartak Varna+0.02on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Plovdiv ↓

Spartak Varna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Botev Plovdiv or draw

74%

Botev Plovdiv or Spartak Varna

75%

Draw or Spartak Varna

51%

Winning margin

Botev Plovdiv wins by 2+

25%

Spartak Varna wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Botev Plovdiv 1+ goals

79%

Botev Plovdiv 2+ goals

46%

Botev Plovdiv 3+ goals

21%

Spartak Varna 1+ goals

65%

Spartak Varna 2+ goals

29%

Spartak Varna 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Botev Plovdiv (draw refunded)

66%

Spartak Varna (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Plovdiv at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.49 · 16 matches

Spartak Varna away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.97 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Plovdiv attack 1.17 + Spartak Varna defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.57

Spartak Varna attack 0.63 + Botev Plovdiv defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Botev Plovdiv scores more

49%

level

25%

Spartak Varna scores more

26%

Botev Plovdiv at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Botev Plovdiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

90

S. Kalu

Botev Plovdiv · M

9.2

Match Events

12'

E. Kwateng↳ T. Nedelev

18'

S. Kalu

37'

Ivaylo Videv

42'

P. Prindzhev← T. Chunchukov

44'

Maksym Kovalyov

45+1'

V. Dimitrov← D. Ivanov

45'

T. Nedelev

46'

Mascote← S. Tsonov

46'

Z. Tindano← I. Videv

46'

E. Yanchev← D. Krastev

53'

S. Kalu↳ Z. Tindano

61'

Nikola Soldo

61'

C. Algarra← T. Nedelev

61'

W. Chimezie← E. Rodriguez

66'

Georg Stojanovski

72'

Mascote↳ K. Balogiannis

76'

C. Meotti← S. Kalu

79'

Lucas Araujo

85'

Edson Silva

90+3'

I. Aleksiev← S. Moukachar

90+3'

D. Lozev← Xande

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

BotevSpartak

Overview

63%Possession37%

29Total Shots5

3.23Expected Goals (xG)0.33

14Corners1

15Fouls10

Shots

29Total Shots5

15On Target2

7Off Target3

7Blocked0

15Inside Box2

14Outside Box3

Passing

63%Possession37%

568Total Passes280

511Accurate Passes232

90%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves10

Discipline

15Fouls10

4Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna

Botev Plovdiv beat Spartak Varna 5-0 in First League on April 4, 2026.

Goals: E. Kwateng (12'), S. Kalu (18', 53'), T. Nedelev (45'), Mascote (72').

Botev Plovdiv controlled possession (63%) and registered 29 shots to 5.

The match was played at Stadion Hristo Botev in Plovdiv.

Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna — First League 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Botev Plovdiv vs Spartak Varna