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Spartak Pleven vs Montana — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
2 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Montana
Montana
9/20/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 10Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Spartak Pleven33%
×Draw29%
Montana38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.03
Montana
1.14

Montana creates 11% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 97 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Montana
1.22

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Montana
0.86

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Montana+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Montana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
62%
Spartak Pleven or Montana
71%
Draw or Montana
67%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
12%
Montana wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
64%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
28%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
9%
Montana 1+ goals
68%
Montana 2+ goals
32%
Montana 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
46%
Montana (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Montana away — creates 1.22, concedes 0.86 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Montana defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 1.03

Montana attack 1.22 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
33%
level
29%
Montana scores more
38%

Montana at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Spartak Pleven 2–1 Montana

Spartak Pleven beat Montana 2-1 in Second League on September 20, 2024.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.