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Montana vs Spartak Pleven — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Montana
Montana
CANC
11:00
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
1/17/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Montana65%
×Draw23%
Spartak Pleven12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.74
Spartak Pleven
0.60

Montana creates 190% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 13 away

creates per match

Montana
1.33
Spartak Pleven
0.54

allows per match

Montana
0.67
Spartak Pleven
2.15

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–110%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Montana or draw
88%
Montana or Spartak Pleven
77%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
35%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
38%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
82%
Montana 2+ goals
52%
Montana 3+ goals
25%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
45%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
12%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
84%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.33, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.54, concedes 2.15 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.33 + Spartak Pleven defence 2.15 → ÷2 → 1.74

Spartak Pleven attack 0.54 + Montana defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Montana scores more
65%
level
23%
Spartak Pleven scores more
12%

Montana at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Montana face Spartak Pleven (Friendlies Clubs)

Friendlies Clubs returns with Montana hosting Spartak Pleven. Match starts January 17, 2026. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.