Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Montana vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Montana
Montana
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
3/2/2024Second LeagueSecond League · Round 23Stadion Ogosta

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Montana56%
×Draw26%
Spartak Pleven18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Montana
1.54
Spartak Pleven
0.76

Montana creates 103% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 80 away

creates per match

Montana
1.59
Spartak Pleven
0.78

allows per match

Montana
0.73
Spartak Pleven
1.50

finishing

Montana+0.00on par
Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Montana ↓

Spartak Pleven →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Montana or draw
82%
Montana or Spartak Pleven
74%
Draw or Spartak Pleven
44%

Winning margin

Montana wins by 2+
29%
Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Montana 1+ goals
79%
Montana 2+ goals
45%
Montana 3+ goals
20%
Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
53%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
18%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Montana (draw refunded)
75%
Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Montana at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.73 · 98 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.50 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Montana attack 1.59 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.54

Spartak Pleven attack 0.78 + Montana defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Montana scores more
56%
level
26%
Spartak Pleven scores more
18%

Montana at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Montana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Montana vs Spartak Pleven

Montana beat Spartak Pleven 1-0 in Second League on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta in Montana.