Spartak Pleven 1–0 Litex: Result & Stats

Spartak Pleven

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Litex

P. Antonov 66'

12/8/2024

Second League · Round 21Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 77+ matches

Spartak Pleven42%

×Draw29%

Litex29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak PlevenExpected goals in this matchLitex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.97

Spartak Pleven

1.23

Litex

0.97

Spartak Pleven creates 27% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 96 away

1.22

creates per match

0.85

1.09

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Spartak Pleven

1.22

Litex

0.85

allows per match

Spartak Pleven

1.09

Litex

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Litex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw

71%

Spartak Pleven or Litex

71%

Draw or Litex

58%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

19%

Litex wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

71%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

35%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

13%

Litex 1+ goals

62%

Litex 2+ goals

25%

Litex 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

59%

Litex (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.09 · 77 matches

Litex away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.24 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.22 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Litex attack 0.85 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more

42%

level

29%

Litex scores more

29%

Spartak Pleven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

D. Kalchev

32'

V. Shopov

50'

Y. Kasov

59'

D. Stoyanov← Y. Pehlivanov

64'

65'

66'

70'

71'

73'

86'

S. Petkov← P. Antonov

87'

I. Bakalski← H. Petkov

Spartak

Litex

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Antonov

▼

Petkov

Manager: K. Bislimov

59'▲D. Stoyanov←▼Y. Pehlivanov

73'▲I. David←▼V. Ivanov

86'▲S. Petkov←▼P. Antonov

87'▲I. Bakalski←▼H. Petkov

Spartak Pleven substitutes

StoyanovDavidPetkovBakalskiStefanovNikolaevTairovBadarinGeorgiev

Manager: H. Arangelov

65'▲P. Kepov←▼Y. Kasov

70'▲M. Banev←▼V. Nankov

Litex substitutes

KepovBanevGeorgievIvanovSimeonovKaramishev