Litex 3–0 Spartak Pleven: Result & Stats

Litex

FT

3 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Spartak Pleven

A. Buchkov 90'

A. Angelov 80'

G. Staykov 72'

5/30/2023

Second League · Round 33Gradski stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Litex48%

×Draw29%

Spartak Pleven23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LitexExpected goals in this matchSpartak Pleven

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.80

Litex

1.29

Spartak Pleven

0.80

Litex creates 61% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 75 away

1.12

creates per match

0.83

0.78

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Litex

1.12

Spartak Pleven

0.83

allows per match

Litex

0.78

Spartak Pleven

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Litex+0.00on par

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Litex ↓

Spartak Pleven →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–110%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Litex or draw

77%

Litex or Spartak Pleven

71%

Draw or Spartak Pleven

52%

Winning margin

Litex wins by 2+

22%

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Litex 1+ goals

72%

Litex 2+ goals

37%

Litex 3+ goals

14%

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals

55%

Spartak Pleven 2+ goals

19%

Spartak Pleven 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Litex (draw refunded)

67%

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Litex at home — creates 1.12, concedes 0.78 · 97 matches

Spartak Pleven away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.45 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Litex attack 1.12 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.29

Spartak Pleven attack 0.83 + Litex defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Litex scores more

48%

level

29%

Spartak Pleven scores more

23%

Litex at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Litex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

16'

16'

34'

41'

46'

59'

61'

S. Hristov← M. Dimitrov

65'

F. Elle Essouma

71'

A. Georgiev← V. Bozhinov

72'

G. Staykov

76'

M. Ganchev← M. Rusanov

76'

T. Ivanov← D. Kalchev

80'

85'

85'

90'

90'

90'

90+3'

M. Durmush← S. Abdulganiyu

90+3'

V. Nankov← A. Buchkov

90'

A. Buchkov

Litex

Spartak

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

Buchkov

▼

Abdulgani

Manager: L. Petrović

85'▲I. Penev←▼E. Ignatov

90+3'▲M. Durmush←▼S. Abdulganiyu

90+3'▲V. Nankov←▼A. Buchkov

Litex substitutes

PenevDurmushNankovGeorgievIvanovMatevVasilevLozanov

Manager: T. Mladenov

46'▲V. Bozhinov←▼Klauber

61'▲S. Hristov←▼M. Dimitrov

71'▲A. Georgiev←▼V. Bozhinov

76'▲M. Ganchev←▼M. Rusanov

76'▲T. Ivanov←▼D. Kalchev

Spartak Pleven substitutes

BozhinovHristovGeorgievGanchevIvanovAntonov

Second League: Litex 3–0 Spartak Pleven

Litex beat Spartak Pleven 3-0 in Second League on May 30, 2023.

Goals: G. Staykov (72'), A. Angelov (80'), A. Buchkov (90').

The match was played at Gradski stadion in Lovech.

Litex vs Spartak Pleven — Second League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Second League: Litex 3–0 Spartak Pleven