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Spartak Pleven vs Litex — Second League 2018

Spartak Pleven
Spartak Pleven
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Litex
Litex
9/1/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 8Pleven Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Spartak Pleven42%
×Draw29%
Litex29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Pleven
1.22
Litex
0.95

Spartak Pleven creates 28% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 110 away

creates per match

Spartak Pleven
1.20
Litex
0.84

allows per match

Spartak Pleven
1.06
Litex
1.24

finishing

Spartak Pleven+0.00on par
Litex+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Pleven ↓

Litex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Spartak Pleven or draw
71%
Spartak Pleven or Litex
71%
Draw or Litex
58%

Winning margin

Spartak Pleven wins by 2+
19%
Litex wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Pleven 1+ goals
70%
Spartak Pleven 2+ goals
34%
Spartak Pleven 3+ goals
12%
Litex 1+ goals
61%
Litex 2+ goals
25%
Litex 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Spartak Pleven (draw refunded)
60%
Litex (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Pleven at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.06 · 80 matches

Litex away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.24 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Pleven attack 1.20 + Litex defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.22

Litex attack 0.84 + Spartak Pleven defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Spartak Pleven scores more
42%
level
29%
Litex scores more
29%

Spartak Pleven at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Spartak Pleven will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Spartak Pleven 4–1 Litex

Spartak Pleven beat Litex 4-1 in Second League on September 1, 2023.

The match was played at Pleven Stadium in Pleven.