Spartak Moscow 3–1 Lokomotiv: Result & Stats | Cup

Spartak Moscow

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Lokomotiv

Marquinhos 55'

Lucas Fasson 49' (OG)

L. Garcia 4'

A. Batrakov 67'

11/6/2025

Cup · Quarter-finalsLukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Spartak Moscow48%

×Draw22%

Lokomotiv30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Spartak MoscowExpected goals in this matchLokomotiv

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.48

Spartak Moscow

1.94

Lokomotiv

1.48

Spartak Moscow creates 31% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 19 away

2.42

creates per match

1.95

1.00

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Spartak Moscow

2.42

Lokomotiv

1.95

allows per match

Spartak Moscow

1.00

Lokomotiv

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

Lokomotiv →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw

70%

Spartak Moscow or Lokomotiv

78%

Draw or Lokomotiv

52%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

27%

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

86%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

58%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

30%

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

77%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

43%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

62%

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

Lokomotiv away — creates 1.95, concedes 1.47 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.42 + Lokomotiv defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.94

Lokomotiv attack 1.95 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more

48%

level

22%

Lokomotiv scores more

30%

Spartak Moscow at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

L. Garcia

13'

Artem Timofeev

26'

Dmitriy Barinov

30'

Lucas Fasson← C. Montes

45'

Zelimkhan Bakaev

46'

A. Rudenko← N. Komlichenko

46'

A. Karpukas← A. Timofeev

49'

Lucas FassonOwn goal

55'

Marquinhos↳ P. Solari

56'

Cristian Ramírez

60'

R. Myalkovskiy← Z. Bakaev

60'

N. Saltykov← D. Prutsev

67'

A. Batrakov↳ A. Rudenko

73'

M. Ugalde← L. Garcia

73'

T. Bongonda← P. Solari

85'

O. Reabciuk← Marquinhos

88'

Aleksandr Rudenko

90+5'

R. Zobnin← G. Fernandes

90+5'

C. Martins← E. Barco

Statistics

SpartakLokomotiv

Discipline

0Yellow Cards5

0Red Cards0