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Lokomotiv vs Spartak Moscow — Cup 2019

Lokomotiv
Lokomotiv
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscowadvanced
N. Komlichenko 90' (pen)
A. Batrakov 24'
P. Solari 57'
Marquinhos 53'
M. Ugalde 41'
11/26/2025CupCup · Quarter-finalsRZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Lokomotiv46%
×Draw24%
Spartak Moscow30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lokomotiv
1.63
Spartak Moscow
1.28

Lokomotiv creates 27% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

Lokomotiv
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.61

allows per match

Lokomotiv
0.95
Spartak Moscow
1.25

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw
70%
Lokomotiv or Spartak Moscow
76%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
54%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+
24%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals
80%
Lokomotiv 2+ goals
48%
Lokomotiv 3+ goals
22%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
72%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
37%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)
60%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.95 · 19 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 2.00 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + Lokomotiv defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Lokomotiv scores more
46%
level
24%
Spartak Moscow scores more
30%

Lokomotiv at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

24'
A. Batrakov
30'
Pablo Solari
35'
Nail Umyarov
40'
Zelimkhan Bakaev
41'
M. Ugalde
46'
I. Dmitriev← O. Reabciuk
46'
G. Fernandes← C. Martins
46'
Marquinhos← D. Khlusevich
46'
N. Komlichenko← D. Vorobyev
46'
S. Pinyaev← Z. Bakaev
53'
Marquinhos↳ G. Fernandes
57'
P. Solari↳ D. Denisov
62'
A. Silyanov← M. Nenakhov
62'
D. Prutsev← A. Karpukas
63'
Gerzino Nyamsi
65'
A. Zabolotnyi← P. Solari
71'
A. Djiku← C. Wooh
79'
N. Saltykov← A. Rudenko
84'
Danil Prutsev
90'
Dmitriy Barinov
90'
N. KomlichenkoPenalty

Statistics

LokomotivSpartak
Discipline
5Yellow Cards2
0Red Cards0

Cup: Lokomotiv 2–3 Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow beat Lokomotiv 3-2 in Cup on November 26, 2025.

Goals: A. Batrakov (24'), M. Ugalde (41'), Marquinhos (53'), P. Solari (57'), N. Komlichenko (90' pen).

The match was played at RZD Arena in Moscow.