Lokomotiv 4–2 Spartak Moscow: Result & Stats

Lokomotiv

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Spartak Moscow

A. Batrakov 86', 79', 18'

D. Vorobyev 49'

E. Barco 78' (pen)

C. Martins 26'

8/9/2025

Premier League · Round 4RZD Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Lokomotiv44%

×Draw26%

Spartak Moscow30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

LokomotivExpected goals in this matchSpartak Moscow

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.19

Lokomotiv

1.48

Spartak Moscow

1.19

Lokomotiv creates 24% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

1.69

creates per match

1.35

1.02

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

Lokomotiv

1.69

Spartak Moscow

1.35

allows per match

Lokomotiv

1.02

Spartak Moscow

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lokomotiv+0.00on par

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lokomotiv ↓

Spartak Moscow →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Lokomotiv or draw

70%

Lokomotiv or Spartak Moscow

74%

Draw or Spartak Moscow

56%

Winning margin

Lokomotiv wins by 2+

21%

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Lokomotiv 1+ goals

77%

Lokomotiv 2+ goals

43%

Lokomotiv 3+ goals

19%

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals

70%

Spartak Moscow 2+ goals

33%

Spartak Moscow 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Lokomotiv (draw refunded)

59%

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lokomotiv at home — creates 1.69, concedes 1.02 · 120 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.26 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lokomotiv attack 1.69 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.48

Spartak Moscow attack 1.35 + Lokomotiv defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lokomotiv scores more

44%

level

26%

Spartak Moscow scores more

30%

Lokomotiv at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lokomotiv will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

83

A. Batrakov

Lokomotiv · F

10.0

Match Events

10'

Gedson FernandesPenalty cancelled

13'

Dmitriy Vorobyev

18'

A. Batrakov

26'

C. Martins↳ Marquinhos

29'

César Montes

49'

D. Vorobyev↳ E. Morozov

57'

I. Dmitriev← Marquinhos

65'

C. Ramirez← A. Rudenko

70'

M. Ugalde← C. Martins

70'

A. Zabolotnyi← L. Garcia

76'

Igor DmitrievPenalty confirmed

78'

E. BarcoPenalty

79'

N. Komlichenko← D. Vorobyev

79'

A. Batrakov↳ Z. Bakaev

82'

Zelimkhan Bakaev

86'

A. Batrakov↳ Z. Bakaev

89'

D. Godyaev← Z. Bakaev

90+1'

N. Massalyga← P. Solari

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LokomotivSpartak

Overview

31%Possession69%

12Total Shots8

1.96Expected Goals (xG)1.27

0Corners6

17Fouls18

Shots

12Total Shots8

7On Target2

4Off Target3

1Blocked3

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box4

Passing

31%Possession69%

231Total Passes511

158Accurate Passes454

68%Pass Accuracy89%

Goalkeeping

0Saves3

Discipline

17Fouls18

3Yellow Cards0

0Offsides1