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Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov — Premier League 2018

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
FC Rostov
FC Rostov
10/18/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 120+ matches

Spartak Moscow49%
×Draw25%
FC Rostov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.62
FC Rostov
1.11

Spartak Moscow creates 46% more chances

Season form · 120 home / 120 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
1.72
FC Rostov
1.18

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.04
FC Rostov
1.52

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

FC Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
76%24%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
74%
Spartak Moscow or FC Rostov
75%
Draw or FC Rostov
51%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
26%
FC Rostov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
80%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
48%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
22%
FC Rostov 1+ goals
67%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
30%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
65%
FC Rostov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 120 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.18, concedes 1.52 · 120 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 1.72 + FC Rostov defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.62

FC Rostov attack 1.18 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
49%
level
25%
FC Rostov scores more
26%

Spartak Moscow at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Spartak Moscow 1–1 FC Rostov

Spartak Moscow and FC Rostov drew 1-1 in Premier League on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Lukoil Arena in Moscow.