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Spartak Moscow vs FC Rostov — Cup 2019

Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
FC Rostov
FC Rostov
9/18/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 4Lukoil Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Spartak Moscow57%
×Draw22%
FC Rostov21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Spartak Moscow
1.92
FC Rostov
1.06

Spartak Moscow creates 81% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 24 away

creates per match

Spartak Moscow
2.42
FC Rostov
1.13

allows per match

Spartak Moscow
1.00
FC Rostov
1.42

finishing

Spartak Moscow+0.00on par
FC Rostov+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Spartak Moscow ↓

FC Rostov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Spartak Moscow or draw
79%
Spartak Moscow or FC Rostov
78%
Draw or FC Rostov
43%

Winning margin

Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
34%
FC Rostov wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
85%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
57%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
30%
FC Rostov 1+ goals
65%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
29%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
74%
FC Rostov (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Spartak Moscow at home — creates 2.42, concedes 1.00 · 26 matches

FC Rostov away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.42 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Spartak Moscow attack 2.42 + FC Rostov defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.92

FC Rostov attack 1.13 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Spartak Moscow scores more
57%
level
22%
FC Rostov scores more
21%

Spartak Moscow at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Spartak Moscow will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cup: Spartak Moscow 1–2 FC Rostov

FC Rostov beat Spartak Moscow 2-1 in Cup on September 18, 2025.

The match was played at Lukoil Arena in Moscow.