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FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow — Cup 2019

FC Rostov
FC Rostov
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Spartak Moscow
Spartak Moscow
7/30/2025CupCup · Group Stage - 1Rostov Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

FC Rostov39%
×Draw25%
Spartak Moscow36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FC Rostov
1.42
Spartak Moscow
1.36

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 19 home / 28 away

creates per match

FC Rostov
1.58
Spartak Moscow
1.61

allows per match

FC Rostov
1.11
Spartak Moscow
1.25

finishing

FC Rostov+0.00on par
Spartak Moscow+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FC Rostov ↓

Spartak Moscow →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

FC Rostov or draw
64%
FC Rostov or Spartak Moscow
75%
Draw or Spartak Moscow
61%

Winning margin

FC Rostov wins by 2+
18%
Spartak Moscow wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

FC Rostov 1+ goals
76%
FC Rostov 2+ goals
41%
FC Rostov 3+ goals
17%
Spartak Moscow 1+ goals
74%
Spartak Moscow 2+ goals
39%
Spartak Moscow 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

FC Rostov (draw refunded)
52%
Spartak Moscow (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FC Rostov at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.11 · 19 matches

Spartak Moscow away — creates 1.61, concedes 1.25 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FC Rostov attack 1.58 + Spartak Moscow defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.42

Spartak Moscow attack 1.61 + FC Rostov defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

FC Rostov scores more
39%
level
25%
Spartak Moscow scores more
36%

FC Rostov at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "FC Rostov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: FC Rostov vs Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow beat FC Rostov 2-0 in Cup on July 30, 2025.

The match was played at Rostov Arena in Rostov.