Sparta Rotterdam 1–0 NAC Breda: Result & Stats

Sparta Rotterdam

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

NAC Breda

S. Mito 26'

12/7/2025

Eredivisie · Round 15Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam45%

×Draw24%

NAC Breda30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta RotterdamExpected goals in this matchNAC Breda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.29

Sparta Rotterdam

1.63

NAC Breda

1.29

Sparta Rotterdam creates 26% more chances

Season form · 43 home / 10 away

1.34

creates per match

1.29

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.34

NAC Breda

1.29

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam

1.29

NAC Breda

1.91

-0.04on par

finishing

-0.29scores less than expected

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam-0.04on par

NAC Breda-0.29scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

NAC Breda →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw

70%

Sparta Rotterdam or NAC Breda

76%

Draw or NAC Breda

55%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

23%

NAC Breda wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

80%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

48%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

22%

NAC Breda 1+ goals

72%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

37%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

60%

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.29 · 43 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.91 · 10 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.34 + NAC Breda defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

NAC Breda attack 1.29 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

45%

level

24%

NAC Breda scores more

30%

Sparta Rotterdam at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

J. Drommel

Sparta Rotterdam · G

10.0

Match Events

26'

S. Mito↳ J. Kitolano

43'

Teo QuinteroGoal cancelled

46'

P. Clement← J. Kitolano

57'

L. Duijvestijn← A. Santos

57'

Y. el Meftahi← A. Oufkir

73'

C. Brym← L. Holtby

73'

C. Leemans← M. Nassoh

73'

S. van Hooijdonk← R. Paula

74'

P. van Aanholt← M. Kleijn

85'

B. Ghalidi← M. Balard

89'

89'

90+1'

90+4'

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaNAC

Overview

41%Possession59%

12Total Shots22

2.43Expected Goals (xG)2.26

1Corners14

11Fouls10

Shots

12Total Shots22

6On Target9

4Off Target10

2Blocked3

10Inside Box14

2Outside Box8

Passing

41%Possession59%

349Total Passes468

275Accurate Passes380

79%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

8Saves4

1.11Goals Prevented1.11

Discipline

11Fouls10

1Yellow Cards1

4Offsides2

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda

Sparta Rotterdam beat NAC Breda 1-0 in Eredivisie on December 7, 2025.

Goals: S. Mito (26').

NAC Breda controlled possession (59%) and registered 22 shots to 12.

The match was played at Sparta Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.

Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda — Eredivisie 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda