NAC Breda 0–0 Sparta Rotterdam: Result & Stats

NAC Breda

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Sparta Rotterdam

4/5/2026

Eredivisie · Round 29Rat Verlegh Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

NAC Breda42%

×Draw26%

Sparta Rotterdam32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

NAC BredaExpected goals in this matchSparta Rotterdam

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.43

1.23

NAC Breda

1.43

Sparta Rotterdam

1.23

NAC Breda creates 16% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 41 away

1.10

creates per match

1.17

1.30

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

NAC Breda

1.10

Sparta Rotterdam

1.17

allows per match

NAC Breda

1.30

Sparta Rotterdam

1.75

-0.60scores less than expected

finishing

-0.02on par

finishing

NAC Breda-0.60scores less

Sparta Rotterdam-0.02on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

NAC Breda ↓

Sparta Rotterdam →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

NAC Breda or draw

68%

NAC Breda or Sparta Rotterdam

74%

Draw or Sparta Rotterdam

58%

Winning margin

NAC Breda wins by 2+

20%

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

NAC Breda 1+ goals

76%

NAC Breda 2+ goals

42%

NAC Breda 3+ goals

17%

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals

71%

Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals

35%

Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

NAC Breda (draw refunded)

56%

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

NAC Breda at home — creates 1.10, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Sparta Rotterdam away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.75 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

NAC Breda attack 1.10 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.43

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.17 + NAC Breda defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

NAC Breda scores more

42%

level

26%

Sparta Rotterdam scores more

32%

NAC Breda at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "NAC Breda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

J. Kitolano

Sparta Rotterdam · M

7.7

Match Events

11'

Lushendry Edward Martes

45'

Julian Baas

46'

G. Vianello← B. Martins Indi

46'

46'

55'

55'

55'

56'

61'

62'

75'

C. Terho← S. Mito

77'

P. Reulen← M. Nassoh

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

NACSparta

Overview

56%Possession44%

12Total Shots6

0.51Expected Goals (xG)0.55

11Corners3

12Fouls19

Shots

12Total Shots6

4On Target3

6Off Target3

2Blocked0

6Inside Box4

6Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

434Total Passes349

354Accurate Passes283

82%Pass Accuracy81%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0.36Goals Prevented0.36

Discipline

12Fouls19

1Yellow Cards3

0Offsides1