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Sparta Rotterdam vs NAC Breda — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam
FT
1 – 1
NAC Breda
NAC Breda
8/22/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Sparta Rotterdam39%
×Draw26%
NAC Breda35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Rotterdam
1.42
NAC Breda
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 4 away

creates per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.83
NAC Breda
1.50

allows per match

Sparta Rotterdam
1.17
NAC Breda
1.00

finishing

Sparta Rotterdam+0.00on par
NAC Breda+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Rotterdam ↓

NAC Breda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Sparta Rotterdam or draw
65%
Sparta Rotterdam or NAC Breda
74%
Draw or NAC Breda
61%

Winning margin

Sparta Rotterdam wins by 2+
18%
NAC Breda wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Sparta Rotterdam 1+ goals
76%
Sparta Rotterdam 2+ goals
41%
Sparta Rotterdam 3+ goals
17%
NAC Breda 1+ goals
74%
NAC Breda 2+ goals
38%
NAC Breda 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Sparta Rotterdam (draw refunded)
53%
NAC Breda (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Rotterdam at home — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

NAC Breda away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Rotterdam attack 1.83 + NAC Breda defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

NAC Breda attack 1.50 + Sparta Rotterdam defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Sparta Rotterdam scores more
39%
level
26%
NAC Breda scores more
35%

Sparta Rotterdam at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Sparta Rotterdam will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Sparta Rotterdam 1–1 NAC Breda

Sparta Rotterdam and NAC Breda drew 1-1 in Friendlies Clubs on August 22, 2020.

The match was played at Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel in Rotterdam.