Sparta Praha 3–0 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

Sparta Praha

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Red Bull Salzburg

Q. Laçi 58'

V. Olatunji 42'

K. Kairinen 2'

9/18/2024

UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 1epet ARENA

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Sparta Praha54%

×Draw23%

Red Bull Salzburg23%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Sparta PrahaExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.08

Sparta Praha

1.81

Red Bull Salzburg

1.08

Sparta Praha creates 68% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

1.67

creates per match

1.50

0.67

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Sparta Praha

1.67

Red Bull Salzburg

1.50

allows per match

Sparta Praha

0.67

Red Bull Salzburg

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw

77%

Sparta Praha or Red Bull Salzburg

77%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

46%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

31%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

84%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

54%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

27%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

66%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

29%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

71%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 1.67 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.81

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.50 + Sparta Praha defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Sparta Praha scores more

54%

level

23%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

23%

Sparta Praha at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

V. Olatunji

Sparta Praha · F

7.9

Match Events

2'

K. Kairinen

42'

V. Olatunji↳ F. Panák

46'

M. Diambou← J. Mellberg

57'

57'

58'

58'

64'

Albion Rrahmani← V. Olatunji

66'

L. Gourna-Douath← B. Clark

71'

M. Ryneš← T. Wiesner

72'

Lucas Gourna-Douath

72'

E. Krasniqi← L. Haraslín

83'

P. Ratkov← Stefan Bajčetić

84'

L. Sadílek← Q. Laçi

87'

Martin Vitík

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

SpartaRed

Overview

29%Possession71%

11Total Shots11

2.35Expected Goals (xG)0.60

4Corners2

11Fouls13

Shots

11Total Shots11

6On Target1

5Off Target4

0Blocked6

7Inside Box5

4Outside Box6

Passing

29%Possession71%

253Total Passes636

169Accurate Passes554

67%Pass Accuracy87%

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

-0.36Goals Prevented-0.36

Discipline

11Fouls13

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2