Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Red Bull Salzburg vs Sparta Praha — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Red Bull Salzburg
Red Bull Salzburg
CANC
10:00
Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
1/22/2022Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Red Bull Salzburg37%
×Draw21%
Sparta Praha42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Red Bull Salzburg
1.92
Sparta Praha
2.04

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 21 home / 9 away

creates per match

Red Bull Salzburg
2.05
Sparta Praha
2.22

allows per match

Red Bull Salzburg
1.86
Sparta Praha
1.78

finishing

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par
Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Red Bull Salzburg ↓

Sparta Praha →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Red Bull Salzburg or draw
58%
Red Bull Salzburg or Sparta Praha
79%
Draw or Sparta Praha
63%

Winning margin

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+
20%
Sparta Praha wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals
85%
Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals
57%
Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals
30%
Sparta Praha 1+ goals
87%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
60%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)
47%
Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Red Bull Salzburg at home — creates 2.05, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 2.22, concedes 1.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Red Bull Salzburg attack 2.05 + Sparta Praha defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.92

Sparta Praha attack 2.22 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Red Bull Salzburg scores more
37%
level
21%
Sparta Praha scores more
42%

Sparta Praha at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Red Bull Salzburg host Sparta Praha

January 22, 2022: Red Bull Salzburg take on Sparta Praha in Friendlies Clubs. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.